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The Euro takes center stage today as traders await key Eurozone PMI figures, with sentiment shifting ahead of the release. Despite the spotlight on European data, the US Dollar continues to hold firm, underpinned by safe-haven demand and anticipation of the upcoming FOMC minutes. This tug-of-war between Eurozone economic signals and the Dollar’s resilience is setting the tone across major currency pairs.
GBP/USD has extended its losses for the third consecutive day, slipping roughly 0.3% and testing key moving averages as of today. The sell-off follows a hotter-than-expected UK inflation print, which pushed odds for a rate cut by the Bank of England below 50%. Attention now turns to upcoming PMI readings and the FOMC minutes for fresh directional cues.
Geopolitical Risks: None currently prominent; focus is squarely on economic data and central bank sentiment.
US Economic Data: A stronger U.S. dollar and elevated inflation signals are keeping GBP under pressure.
FOMC Outlook: Bond markets and Fed rate expectations are shaping dollar strength, indirectly affecting the pound.
Trade Policy: No notable developments affecting pound flows today.
Trend: Modestly bearish — GBP/USD continues its pullback below critical technical levels.
Resistance: Immediate resistance around the 50-day EMA near 1.3450–1.3500.
Support: Next support zone lies near 1.3400 and potentially lower if bearish momentum accelerates.
Forecast: Expect consolidation within a 1.3400–1.3500 band ahead of PMI and U.S. data. A surprise reading could push the pound either way.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously negative — weakness is driven by persistent inflation and diminished BoE easing expectations.
Catalyst: Watch for the Eurozone and UK PMI releases, along with the FOMC minutes, to offer new direction.
USD/JPY is climbing toward the mid-147.00s, but momentum is fragile amid mixed signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve. The pair lacks bullish conviction as markets digest Japanese rate divergence and await further clarity on central bank paths.
Geopolitical Risks: Modest safe-haven demand supports the yen modestly, though dollar flows remain prevalent.
Monetary Policy: Diverging policy stances—BoJ appears cautious while markets increasingly expect a Fed rate cut—continue to exert directional pressure.
FOMC Outlook: Markets remain sensitive to indications of U.S. rate easing, while BoJ developments lack clarity.
Trade & Economic Data: No fresh trade or macro policies are influencing the pair today.
Trend: Neutral — a cautious upward drift amid limited conviction.
Forecast: Expect the pair to linger in a 146.80–147.50 range, with breakouts tied to major Fed or BoJ announcements.
Market Sentiment: Tentative — market moves likely to be reactionary amid central bank ambiguity.
Catalyst: Key drivers include upcoming BoJ commentary or policy shifts and clarity from Fed communications (e.g., Jackson Hole statements, FOMC signals).
EUR/JPY is holding steady above 171.50, trading around 171.70 during early Asian hours, as traders tread cautiously ahead of Eurozone PMI data releases from Germany and across the region. The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid ongoing uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook, while Eurozone activity indicators remain highly anticipated.
Geopolitical Risks: Absent significant geopolitical tension today—moves are driven chiefly by economic data anticipation.
Monetary Policy: Uncertainty persists around the BoJ’s tightening trajectory, supporting weaker yen dynamics. Meanwhile, attention turns to ECB growth signals via PMI releases.
US & Fed Signals: A broadly firm dollar adds pressure on both EUR and JPY, though euro and yen dynamics reflect regional divergences.
Trend: Neutral—EUR/JPY is consolidating within a tight range ahead of data.
Resistance: Near-term resistance lies in the 172.00–172.20 zone.
Support: Support is anchored around the 171.50 psychological level.
Forecast: Range-bound trading between 171.50–172.20 is likely heading into PMI releases. A breakout on either side will depend on the data’s surprise from expectations.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral—traders are holding positions and await proactive guidance from PMIs and central bank commentary.
Catalyst: Eurozone PMI numbers are the immediate movers—strong prints may boost EUR/JPY; weak data or BoJ hawkish cues may lift JPY.
EUR/USD is holding losses near 1.1650, trading cautiously as markets await Eurozone PMI data. The pair faces pressure from a firm U.S. dollar, supported by hawkish undertones from the latest FOMC minutes, even as Eurozone inflation remains tame.
Geopolitical & Economic Risks: While geopolitical risks are subdued, attention is squarely on economic data and central bank signals, particularly from the ECB and Fed.
Eurozone Data (PMIs): Upcoming Eurozone PMI reports are highly anticipated and could influence the magnitude and direction of EUR/USD movements.
Monetary Policy: Tighter Fed communication and a stronger U.S. dollar are weighing on the euro.
Trend: Mildly bearish — the pair is under pressure and holding near key technical levels.
Resistance: Look for resistance around 1.1700–1.1720.
Support: Immediate support lies around 1.1620–1.1650; a breakdown could open the path lower.
Forecast: Expect limited range trading between 1.1620–1.1700 as markets await Eurozone PMI data. A positive surprise may lift the euro; a disappointing print could send it further into the red.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish—traders are hesitant and await clearer directional cues.
Catalyst: The upcoming Eurozone PMI data remains the key catalyst; a strong print could provide temporary relief for the euro, while weaker readings may reinforce USD strength.
USD/CAD remains under bullish control near the 1.3880 level—its highest since May 21—driven by a hawkish boost from the latest FOMC minutes and a dovish tilt from the Bank of Canada, which offsets modest oil price gains. Meanwhile, Reuters notes the Canadian dollar is steady near a three-month low, with USD/CAD recently touching 1.3883, near its weakest level since May 22. Tight resistance around 1.3880 is now a focal point for traders.
Geopolitical Risks: Little direct influence today—currency moves are data and policy-driven.
US Economic Signals: FOMC minutes leaning hawkish continue to bolster dollar strength.
BoC Policy Outlook: A dovish stance from the Bank of Canada keeps the loonie under pressure.
Oil Prices: A modest uptick in crude provides limited support to CAD, but the broader direction remains influenced by central bank divergence.
Trend: Bullish — confirmed by a breakout above the 100-day SMA and cluster around 1.3800.
Resistance: Immediate resistance near 1.3900; a sustained break could target 1.3950 and psychological 1.4000.
Support: Near-term support lies around 1.3850–1.3855. A meaningful decline may find support near the 1.3800 mark or the 100-day SMA.
Market Sentiment: Bullish — momentum favors dollar strength, with traders watching for breakout opportunities.
Catalyst: Key drivers include future BoC commentary, upcoming oil data, and central bank signals that may influence the trajectory of USD/CAD.
As the market digests the Eurozone PMI and prepares for the FOMC minutes, volatility could rise in both EUR/USD and broader FX markets. Traders will be closely watching whether the Euro can find support from improving data or if the Dollar’s strength will keep it on the defensive. Staying alert to key releases and central bank cues will be crucial in navigating the next moves.
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Markets opened Wednesday with a sharp focus on the New Zealand dollar, as the RBNZ delivered a dovish 25 bps rate cut, driving AUD/NZD above 1.1000 for the first time since April. The move highlighted central bank divergence in the region, with the Aussie outperforming its trans-Tasman counterpart. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened above 98.00 ahead of the FOMC minutes, while oil prices slipped toward $62.00 on optimism around Ukraine peace talks. Meanwhile, China’s latest policy decision weighed on the Australian dollar, underscoring how global central bank moves remain the key driver of sentiment across FX and commodities.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is hovering near $62.00 per barrel in early Asian trade, sliding modestly as markets digest renewed optimism for peace talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. The prospect of reduced geopolitical tensions and potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil is softening crude prices today.
Geopolitical Risks: Market hopes for a trilateral summit among Trump, Putin, and Zelenskiy suggest potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which may boost supply and drag prices lower.
US Economic Signals: Persistent Fed expectations and demand outlooks are holding oil prices stable rather than exerting bullish pressure.
Trade Policy: No immediate shifts, but energy-related outcomes from global diplomatic talks may shape sentiment.
Monetary Policy: Oil markets remain sensitive to trends in U.S. interest rate direction.
Trend: Slightly bearish—WTI is edging lower amid easing geopolitical risk premiums.
Resistance: Upper range between $62.50–$63.00—a break above may indicate temporary bounce.
Support: Watch the $61.50–$62.00 zone; a hold below could open the path toward the $60.00 mark.
Forecast: Expect a narrow range between $61.50–$62.50 in the short term, influenced heavily by developments in the U.S.–Russia–Ukraine dialogue.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously weak—investors are adjusting to evolving signals around geopolitical de-escalation.
Catalyst: Any progress—or setback—in Ukraine peace talks, along with updates on U.S. sanctions and supply data, will be key near-term price drivers.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading under pressure, with AUD/USD easing slightly following China’s decision to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged—marking the third straight month of steady policy. Markets see this as a cautious move by the PBOC, choosing structural and targeted support over broad stimulus, which dampens AUD sentiment due to its close economic ties with China.
Geopolitical Risks: Markets remain watchful amid renewed trade discussions, which could affect AUD-linked commodity flows.
China’s Rate Decision: The PBOC left its loan prime rates at 3.0% (1-year) and 3.5% (5-year), signaling no imminent easing despite economic softening.
US Economic & Fed Signals: The U.S. Dollar Index is holding near 98 ahead of FOMC minutes, providing resistance to AUD gains.
Trade Policy: An extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce improves sentiment somewhat, but doesn’t appear enough to lift the AUD significantly.
Monetary Policy: With China remaining cautious and the Fed steady, the interest rate backdrop is not yet supportive for AUD.
Trend: Mildly bearish — AUD/USD reflects weakening momentum after parent central bank inaction in China.
Forecast: Expect further consolidation or mild downside near 0.6450–0.6500, unless a shift in China policy or USD tone emerges.
Market Sentiment: Neutral to cautious – traders see additional caution from both China’s and Australia’s central banks.
Catalyst: Watch next week for RBA’s interest rate decision and the U.S. FOMC minutes—both could sway AUD strength or weakness abruptly.
AUD/NZD has surged above 1.1000, hitting its highest level since early April. This bullish move follows a dovish 25 bp rate cut from the RBNZ, reinforcing the widening monetary policy divergence between Australia and New Zealand.
Geopolitical Risks: No new developments; investor sentiment is anchored by central bank divergences rather than external shocks.
US Economic Data: Dovish Fed signals and soft U.S. data are broadly supporting commodity-linked and Asian currencies.
FOMC Outlook: Easing expectations in the U.S. further undercut the NZD and support AUD/NZD.
Trend: Clearly bullish—breaking above the 1.1000 resistance reflects strong momentum.
Resistance: Next upside hurdle lies around 1.1050–1.1100.
Support: Key support is now near 1.0980–1.0950, followed by the psychological 1.0900 level.
Forecast: The pair is likely to hold above 1.1000. Further follow-through could target 1.1050+, though a hawkish shift or RBA commentary may cap gains.
Market Sentiment: Bullish—investors favor the Aussie amid continued dovish cues from New Zealand.
Catalyst: Look for RBNZ forward guidance or RBA commentary that could influence the momentum of AUD/NZD.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above 98.00, with fresh gains building on recent momentum as markets prepare for the release of the FOMC minutes and look ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s upcoming speech in Jackson Hole. The index reached 98.393, its highest level since August 12.
Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand is boosting the dollar amid ongoing uncertainty around Ukraine conflict developments.
US Economic Data & FOMC Outlook: While weak jobs data initially supported expectations of a Fed rate cut, hot PPI results have introduced uncertainty, underlining the importance of the FOMC minutes. Markets still price in a ~84% probability of a September rate cut.
Monetary Policy: Fed policy expectations remain the dominant force, with global investors closely monitoring upcoming speeches and minutes for further direction.
Trend: Bullish—continuation of upward momentum with the index surpassing the 98.00 resistance.
Resistance: Short-term ceiling near 98.50–99.00; a break above this could open further gains.
Support: Strong support is in the 97.80–97.90 zone.
Forecast: Likely consolidation just above 98.00 ahead of the FOMC minutes. A hawkish tone from the Fed could carry DXY closer to 99.00, while dovish signals may cap the rally.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic about the dollar—momentum continues but eyes are keenly set on Fed communications.
Catalyst: The Fed’s July meeting minutes and upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Chair Powell are set to be key directional triggers.
NZD/USD has slid to around 0.5850 across early Wednesday trading, pressured by the RBNZ’s decision to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut. The move signals continued dovish tilt from New Zealand’s central bank and contrasts with relatively firmer global policy expectations, particularly from the U.S.
Geopolitical Risks: None dominant today—NZD movement is driven primarily by policy cues.
US Economic & FOMC Outlook: A strong greenback continues to weigh on NZD/USD, as markets focus on upcoming Fed indicators.
Monetary Policy: The RBNZ’s rate cut contributes to diminishing rate differentials in favor of USD, adding downward pressure on NZD.
Trade & Other Policy: No immediate trade developments impacting the pair. NZD remains influenced by global central bank divergence and risk sentiment.
Trend: Bearish — NZD/USD is pulling back amid dovish policy shift.
Resistance: Near-term resistance zone now at 0.5880–0.5900.
Support: Key support lies around 0.5830–0.5850 — breaking below may open patForecast: Expect the pair to trade in a 0.5830–0.5900 range. Persistent USD strength or further RBNZ commentary may press it lower.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously pessimistic on NZD as rate cuts and dollar resilience intersect.
Catalyst: The RBNZ statement and any forward guidance will influence direction, along with broader USD trends.
With central banks firmly in focus, today’s price action reinforces how policy divergence is setting the tone across global markets. The RBNZ’s dovish tilt boosted AUD/NZD, while anticipation of the Fed’s next steps continues to underpin the dollar. Add in softer oil and China’s policy drag on the Aussie, and traders face a landscape where monetary policy and geopolitics remain the main catalysts. The next major clues will come from the FOMC minutes, likely shaping dollar direction and risk appetite into the second half of the week.
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The British pound is trading steadily against the US dollar as investors turn their attention to the upcoming UK inflation report. This data is expected to play a key role in shaping expectations for the Bank of England’s next policy decisions. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated, while softer numbers may revive talks of rate cuts later this year. With global markets closely watching, the release has the potential to spark fresh volatility in GBP/USD.
Gold is hovering around $3,337–$3,338 early Tuesday, showing limited upside momentum. The lack of bullish conviction reflects softening expectations for aggressive Fed easing, despite ongoing geopolitical optimism from a potential U.S.–Russia–Ukraine peace initiative. Investors are awaiting further cues from Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to weigh in on policy direction.
Geopolitical Risks: Growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution between Russia and Ukraine are easing safe-haven demand for gold.
US Economic Data: Recent strong inflation indicators are reducing market expectations of significant Fed easing, limiting gold’s support.
FOMC Outlook: The upcoming Jackson Hole conference is a key event. Markets currently place an ~84% probability on a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in the near term.
Trade Policy: No new developments; trade sentiment remains a background influence at best.
Monetary Policy: Elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Trend: Sideways — gold lacks directional conviction and remains range-bound.
Resistance: $3,350–$3,355 is the key ceiling.
Support: $3,330–$3,325 offers near-term backing.
Forecast: Expect gold to consolidate between $3,330–$3,350, awaiting direction from Fed signals at Jackson Hole.
Market Sentiment: Neutral and cautious — investors await clarity on Fed policy and geopolitical developments.
Catalyst: The Jackson Hole symposium later this week is the primary event to watch.
Silver is trading below the $38.00 mark for the fourth consecutive session, as investors step back from safe-haven assets amid renewed optimism following a U.S.–Ukraine peace-related meeting. White House officials signaled potential progress toward trilateral talks with Russia, reducing safe-haven demand for metals like silver. Nonetheless, recent U.S. data have upheld dovish Fed expectations, which may offer a floor to prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced safe-haven demand as hopes for U.S.–Russia–Ukraine diplomacy ease risk sentiment.
US Economic Data: Strong inflation data have tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts, limiting silver’s upside. Conversely, dovish Fed expectations still offer modest support.
FOMC Outlook: Markets signal around an 84% probability of a 25 bp rate cut in September—supportive but not enough to spark a breakout.
Trade Policy: No direct trade policy impact today; broader macro sentiment remains the key influence.
Monetary Policy: Elevated yields and tempered safe-haven flows tighten pressure on non-yielding metals like silver.
Trend: Bearish-to-neutral — silver remains under pressure, unable to push back above $38.00.
Forecast: Expect continued consolidation below $38.00. A sustained move higher may require dovish Fed commentary or a breakdown in U.S.–Ukraine optimism.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish — safe-haven flows have faded, and upside drivers are limited.
Catalyst: The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and any shift in geopolitical sentiment may determine near-term silver direction.
GBP/USD has softened slightly to around 1.3500 in early European trade. This modest depreciation comes as traders pare back their expectations for Fed rate cuts at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected UK Q2 GDP print (0.3% vs. 0.1%) could limit sterling’s downside. All eyes now turn to tomorrow’s UK CPI release for the next major move.
Geopolitical Risks: None immediate; focus remains on economic data and central bank outlooks.
US Economic Data: A hotter PPI print has dampened expectations for aggressive Fed easing, supporting USD strength.
FOMC Outlook: Market now price in just one Fed rate cut this year—a shift that could restrain GBP/USD.
Trend: Mildly bearish in the short term, with the pair slipping below key thresholds.
Resistance: Near-term resistance is tight around 1.3520–1.3550.
Support: Immediate support lies near 1.3480–1.3450.
Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to trade in a tight range of 1.3450–1.3550, with tomorrow’s CPI report likely to trigger sharper movement.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral—investors cautious ahead of big data.
Catalyst: UK CPI tomorrow is the pivotal event; a surprise print could swing GBP/USD out of its current range.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1359, slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1322, indicating a faint tilt towards yuan depreciation. This comes as Chinese authorities continue to manage currency strength amid global capital flows and broader central bank policy shifts.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical catalysts; however, global risk sentiment and Chinese export resilience remain key radar points.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. data pressure the dollar globally, prompting China to intervene to stabilize the yuan.
FOMC Outlook: Fed policy expectations continue to steer USD strength — influencing PBOC’s currency guidance.
Trend: Neutral-to-slightly bearish for USD/CNY—the small adjustment reflects moderate CNY weakness but lacks aggressive depreciation.
Resistance: Around 7.14, where previous fixing levels have clustered.
Support: Near 7.13, just below today’s fix, serving as a potential stabilization floor.
Forecast: Expect the USD/CNY to range between 7.13–7.14 in the near term. Additional policy nudges may come if external pressures mount.
Market Sentiment: Moderately stable, as markets interpret today’s fix as controlled currency management amid broader dynamics.
Catalyst: Upcoming PBOC guidance, FX reserves data, and external trade developments may influence subsequent reference rate settings.
NZD/USD is gaining traction around 0.5925 in early Asian trade as the US dollar softens and markets position ahead of two key events: Wednesday’s RBNZ interest rate decision and the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve symposium. U.S. economic data that keep September rate-cut expectations intact are helping ease pressure on the Kiwi. Meanwhile, a widely anticipated 25 bp cut by the RBNZ could shape further near-term moves.
Geopolitical Risks: None immediate; risk tone remains positive, favoring flows into NZD.
US Economic Data: Persistent signals of moderation in the U.S. economy support broad USD weakness, backing NZD/USD.
FOMC Outlook: Markets factor in around an 83% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in September, reducing USD strength.
Trade Policy: No major developments—risk sentiment remains the dominant driver.
Trend: Modestly bullish, supported by broader USD softness.
Resistance: Near-term cap is around 0.5940–0.5950.
Support: Immediate floor at 0.5900, with stronger backing near 0.5880.
Forecast: Expect trading in a 0.5900–0.5950 range. A dovish RBNZ or dovish Fed tone could tip the pair higher, while hawkish surprises or stronger USD may push it lower.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism — NZD is supported by risk appetite and USD softening, but sentiment remains tied to central bank cues.
Catalyst: The RBNZ’s rate decision and commentary, along with Fed signals from Jackson Hole, are the key near-term triggers.
For now, the pound is holding its ground, reflecting a cautious market mood ahead of the inflation release. Traders are positioning themselves for potential swings depending on how the data aligns with current expectations. A strong report could provide near-term support for GBP/USD, while a weaker outcome may weigh on sentiment and trigger renewed downside pressure. Either way, the inflation numbers are set to be a decisive factor for the pound’s next direction, keeping it firmly in the spotlight for the trading day.
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Precious metals are trading steadily at the start of the week, with gold and silver finding firm ground as investors weigh global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The US Dollar continues to show resilience, holding firm against major currencies, supported by stable Treasury yields and expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Market participants remain cautious, balancing safe-haven flows into metals with the strength of the greenback, creating a tug-of-war that has kept prices from making any decisive breakout. Traders are now closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and central bank commentary for clearer signals on the next market direction.
Gold is trading near $3,330 in early Monday Asian hours, holding below the key $3,350 level amid cooling safe-haven demand. The metal is pressured by stronger U.S. inflation prints, including a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI), while markets now brace for a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy.
Geopolitical Risks: Sentiment is tepid as markets await developments from the U.S.–Ukraine talks, which could reignite or dampen safe-haven flows depending on the tone.
US Economic Data: Strong PPI (+3.3% YoY vs. 2.5% expected) is tightening Fed expectations, weighing on gold.
FOMC Outlook: Inflation pressure from PPI pushes back on rate-cut bets, which typically provide bullish tailwinds for gold.
Trade Policy: No immediate updates, though broader trade sentiment remains a backdrop.
Monetary Policy: Softer bond yields are offering some support, especially as markets price in September rate-cut possibilities.
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Trend: Neutral to mildly bearish — unable to sustain a move above $3,350.
Resistance: $3,350–$3,355 zone is a tough ceiling; a breakout could lead to a retest of $3,400.
Support: Immediate support near $3,330, followed by $3,325–$3,320.
Forecast: Likely consolidation between $3,320–$3,350 ahead of the U.S.–Ukraine meeting. A dovish result or disappointing tone could ignite a bounce; conversely, progress may dampen gold’s allure.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral — traders are watching for cues from both economic data and geopolitical developments.
Catalyst: The Trump–Zelenskiy meeting today is the central focal point for potential volatility shifts in gold.
Silver has bounced off the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the H4 chart and retested the critical $38.25 barrier, with a move above this level likely to fuel bullish momentum toward the $38.50–$38.75 zones. Traders are cautiously watching for sustained strength before taking aggressive long positions.
Geopolitical Risks: No known geopolitical catalysts affecting silver at present; sentiment is tethered mainly to broader risk flows.
US Economic Data: Strong U.S. inflation readings—particularly PPI—are putting pressure on the dollar, which could support silver if sustained.
FOMC Outlook: Inflation fears may delay expectations of rate cuts, providing mixed implications for silver.
Trade Policy: No immediate trade headlines impacting silver; global macro sentiment is the prevailing driver.
Monetary Policy: As a non-yielding asset, silver benefits from dovish central bank narratives, though continued inflation resilience may restrain momentum.
Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish — price support from the 200-SMA on H4 is encouraging increases.
Forecast: Likely consolidation near $38.00–$38.50. A sustained breakout above $38.25 may open the way to upward targets near $38.75–$39.00; failure could trigger a retracement toward $37.00.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic — buyers are seen defending support, but confirmation is needed for follow-through.
Catalyst: A decisive close above $38.25 is the immediate trigger to monitor. Additionally, any development in U.S. inflation or Fed commentary could influence near-term direction.
GBP/USD is trading around 1.3555 in early Monday Asian hours. The pair is under moderate pressure amid modest US Dollar strength, as markets adopt a cautious tone ahead of the high-profile U.S.–Ukraine talks. Meanwhile, the UK’s Q2 GDP surprise of +0.3% QoQ offers limited support. UK July CPI data, to be released tomorrow, will be closely watched for further direction.
Geopolitical Risks: The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is placing a bid under the dollar due to heightened safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Strong recent US data, including PPI, is reinforcing expectations of a resilient Fed, bolstering the dollar.
FOMC Outlook: The likelihood of a Fed rate cut remains high (around 84%), but expectations of inflation persist, keeping the dollar supported.
Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish — the pair remains capped near 1.3555.
Resistance: 1.3570–1.3600 area is the hurdle to watch.
Support: A floor is forming around 1.3520–1.3500, with possible support near the nine-day EMA.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously balanced — the pound has support from UK growth but is weighed by safe-haven USD flows.
Catalyst: Tomorrow’s UK CPI data will be a key trigger for GBP/USD direction. Geopolitical developments may also shift sentiment quickly.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1322, notably stronger than Friday’s fix of 7.1371 and the Reuters-estimated average of 7.1793. The firmer-than-expected rate suggests a subtle easing of policy tightness or support for the Renminbi, amid broader efforts to maintain stability in foreign exchange markets.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical pressures, though global trade tensions remain a backdrop influencing central bank policy and FX settings.
US Economic Data: Strength in the US economy puts upward pressure on the dollar broadly—but today’s RMB fix indicates PBOC’s willingness to counterbalance such effects.
FOMC Outlook: The Fed’s course remains the biggest driver for broad USD strength—Chinese authorities may be proactively offsetting that to protect export and domestic stability.
Trend: Mildly bearish for USD/CNY in the short term—today’s fix displays a controlled move toward strengthening CNY.
Resistance: Around 7.1400, where previous reference rates clustered before this move.
Support: Near-term support around 7.1300, as the lower threshold may reflect PBOC’s stabilization target zone.
Forecast: Expect consolidation roughly between 7.1300–7.1400. Continued CNY support from policy settings may pressure the pair lower, though persistent USD strength or rising capital outflows may test upper resistance levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously stabilizing—market watchers interpret the move as deliberate PBOC intervention to deter further yuan depreciation.
Catalyst: Next reference-rate setting will be keyed into quickly. US monetary policy signals and trade developments could prompt additional adjustments.
NZD/USD is hovering around 0.5930, buoyed by favorable market sentiment (“risk-on” tone), while lacking the conviction for further upside. Modest strength in the US Dollar and looming decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) limit aggressive bullish positioning ahead of key central bank events.
Geopolitical Risks: Markets remain optimistic following initial thawing in geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to the Ukraine conflict, supporting broader risk assets.
US Economic Data: Modest USD strength is subtle resistance for NZD/USD; traders remain cautious ahead of Fed rate-cut cues expected from Jackson Hole.
FOMC Outlook: Uncertainty lingers around the Fed’s direction, with upcoming Jackson Hole speeches seen as pivotal for USD direction.
Trade Policy: No fresh developments, though broader risk sentiment continues to influence flows into the New Zealand Dollar.
Trend: Neutral—NZD/USD is stable within its trading range but lacks follow-through to break higher.
Resistance: The 0.5935–0.5950 zone is the immediate ceiling to overcome.
Support: Near-term support lies at 0.5900–0.5910, with deeper backing around earlier range lows.
Forecast: Expect sideways action between 0.5900–0.5950. A break above may unfold if sentiment strengthens, while any signs of dovish Fed or strong USD might pressure it toward the lower end.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic—NZD is supported by risk appetite, but cautious ahead of central bank updates.
Catalyst: The RBNZ’s interest rate decision this Wednesday and Fed commentary from Jackson Hole are the key upcoming triggers for NZD/USD movement.
The current environment reflects a market caught between caution and conviction. Precious metals are benefitting from safe-haven demand, yet the strong US Dollar and higher-for-longer interest rate expectations are capping their upside momentum. With geopolitical risks lingering and inflation data on the horizon, volatility could resurface quickly. For now, both precious metals and the Dollar appear steady, but the next big move will likely be triggered by economic releases or policy shifts in the weeks ahead. Investors should stay alert, as sentiment could shift rapidly depending on the catalysts.
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Global markets traded with a mixed tone on Friday as traders positioned themselves ahead of key U.S. Retail Sales data, a release that could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The British pound edged higher, with GBP/USD approaching 1.3550, supported by cautious optimism and dollar softness in early trade. Silver prices held steady near $38.00, reflecting a lack of conviction among metals traders, while the Australian dollar maintained stability following Chinese economic data. In contrast, AUD/JPY weakened toward 95.50 after Japan reported stronger-than-expected Q2 economic growth. The U.S. dollar found selective support, with USD/CHF hovering near 0.8070 on the back of hotter U.S. PPI data.
Silver is trading flat around $38.00 as traders remain non-committal ahead of U.S. Retail Sales data. The metal has struggled to extend gains despite a weaker dollar earlier in the week, with market participants waiting for fresh fundamental cues before taking directional bets.
Geopolitical Risks: No significant geopolitical events boosting safe-haven demand for silver at present.
US Economic Data: U.S. Retail Sales data later today will be crucial; weaker figures could support silver through dollar softness, while stronger data may cap gains.
FOMC Outlook: Expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September provide an underlying bullish bias for precious metals.
Trade Policy: Global trade tensions remain muted, limiting any safe-haven rush toward silver.
Monetary Policy: Lower global interest rate expectations continue to provide a supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like silver.
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Trend: Neutral — silver is consolidating within a tight range.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at $38.20, followed by $38.50.
Support: First support at $37.70, with stronger backing near $37.40.
Forecast: Likely sideways trading between $37.70–$38.50 until key U.S. data is released; a dovish economic signal could spark a breakout.
Market Sentiment: Cautious and indecisive — traders are waiting for a catalyst before committing to positions.
Catalyst: U.S. Retail Sales release — a weaker reading could fuel a short-term rally in silver.
GBP/USD is trading close to 1.3550 in early Friday action, supported by better-than-expected UK GDP data and a softer U.S. dollar ahead of the upcoming U.S. Retail Sales release. The pound’s resilience reflects underlying optimism despite mixed global cues.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical headlines directly impacting GBP/USD; broader risk sentiment remains stable.
US Economic Data: Traders are awaiting U.S. Retail Sales numbers later today. A weaker print could weigh on the dollar, while stronger data may reverse recent GBP gains.
FOMC Outlook: Hot U.S. PPI earlier this week trimmed expectations for a September Fed rate cut, lending some support to the dollar.
Trade Policy: No major trade developments between the UK and its partners; trade flows remain stable.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of England’s steady policy stance continues to offer a neutral-to-supportive backdrop for GBP, with rate path expectations balanced.
Trend: Mildly bullish — price remains above short-term moving averages.
Forecast: Likely consolidation between 1.3500–1.3600 until U.S. Retail Sales data; a weak print could break resistance, while a strong reading may drive a pullback toward support.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic — sterling is buoyed by UK growth data but vulnerable to U.S. data surprises.
Catalyst: U.S. Retail Sales release — the key short-term driver for GBP/USD direction.
The Australian Dollar is holding steady against the U.S. Dollar after recent softness in Chinese data—including weaker-than-expected retail sales and industrial production—failed to derail Aussie support, which is buoyed by fading dollar strength and attractive rate-cut expectations from the Fed.
Geopolitical Risks: No overt geopolitical risks, though global risk sentiment remains moderately cautious.
US Economic Data: Softer U.S. data, including elevated PPI and muted retail performance, is tempering expectations for aggressive Fed tightening—providing a tailwind for AUD/USD
FOMC Outlook: Markets are now pricing in around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, reducing U.S. dollar appeal
Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish—AUD/USD remains range-bound, supported by softer USD dynamics.
Resistance: Key resistance levels at 0.6550–0.6570, following recent highs.
Support: Immediate support near 0.6520–0.6500, including short-term moving averages and psychological levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic—AUD is stabilized by a weaker dollar and easing Fed expectations, but still vulnerable to upside surprises in U.S. data.
Catalyst: Key catalyst remains today’s U.S. Retail Sales report, which may influence near-term shifts in USD strength and, by extension, AUD/USD momentum.
AUD/JPY is trading near 95.60, edging lower as the Japanese Yen gains strength following stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data. Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, equating to a 1.0% annualized gain—well above forecasts and fueling speculation that the BoJ may move toward a tighter policy stance
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Geopolitical Risks: Limited geopolitically-driven impact for now, but trade tensions (particularly around U.S. tariffs) remain a latent risk.
US Economic Data: Softer U.S. data (e.g., PPI and anticipated retail sales) may curb USD strength, indirectly affecting AUD/JPY sentiment.
FOMC Outlook: Elevated expectations for September Fed easing reduce USD support, which may partially benefit AUD/JPY.
rend: Slightly bearish — downward momentum following the Q2 data-driven yen strength.
Resistance: Immediate resistance near 96.00, followed by the upper range around 96.50.
Support: Near-term support lies around 95.50, with deeper technical support between 95.00–94.50.
Forecast: AUD/JPY may remain under pressure toward 95.50. A sustained yen rally could see further downside, while softer USD tone could limit losses.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish — traders respond to stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data while eyeing Fed-linked USD weakness.
Catalyst: Japanese Q2 GDP release is the major near-term catalyst; subsequent BoJ commentary or Fed-related U.S. data could also shift trajectories.
USD/CHF is holding firmly near 0.8070 as the U.S. dollar gains traction from a hotter-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.9% month-on-month—the fastest pace in three years—indicating building inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s Producer and Import Prices dropped 0.9% in July, prompting speculation that the Swiss National Bank may push interest rates into negative territory.
Geopolitical Risks: No immediate geopolitical events affecting USD/CHF; safe-haven appeal may rise if global tensions flare.
US Economic Data: Hot PPI data bolsters expectations for continued inflation, providing support to the U.S. dollar.
FOMC Outlook: Despite rising inflation, markets still anticipate a Fed rate cut in September—muting some USD strength
Trade Policy: No major trade developments currently influencing the pair.
Trend: Mildly bullish — USD/CHF is sustaining gains near key levels.
Resistance: Near-term resistance around 0.8100–0.8120, with upside potential if USD momentum continues.
Support: Immediate support lies near 0.8050, with deeper level at 0.8020 should downside risk intensify.
Forecast: USD/CHF is likely to consolidate between 0.8050–0.8100 ahead of further U.S. data and central bank rhetoric; a continued dovish stance from markets may cap upside, while stronger inflation metrics could drive a break above resistance.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic — the dollar is buoyed by inflation data, yet markets remain mindful of potential Fed policy shifts.
Catalyst: U.S. inflation trajectory remains the primary driver; further Fed commentary or new Swiss inflation data could influence direction.
With U.S. Retail Sales data set to be released later today, market sentiment remains measured as traders weigh the potential impact on the Fed’s rate trajectory. A stronger reading could bolster the dollar and pressure risk-sensitive assets, while a softer print might revive expectations for further policy easing, supporting high-beta currencies and precious metals. Cross-asset volatility could pick up sharply as the trading session progresses, with the focus firmly on U.S. consumer demand and its implications for global growth outlooks.
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Financial markets opened the day with notable shifts across key assets as investors digested a mix of commodity moves, currency developments, and economic data. Gold extended its climb above $3,350, buoyed by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Oil, however, tumbled sharply toward $62.00 amid renewed oversupply concerns, sending ripples across energy markets. In the currency space, the People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate slightly lower, while the Japanese Yen held firm near multi-week highs against a broadly weaker US Dollar. Meanwhile, Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, suggesting resilience in the labor market despite global headwinds.
Gold continues to stage a steady climb, hovering just above $3,365 in early Asian trading—a gain of roughly 0.25% from the prior session. Softer U.S. inflation metrics and renewed expectations for a September Fed interest rate cut are weighing down the U.S. dollar, providing essential support to the non-yielding precious metal.
Geopolitical Risks: While safe-haven flows are moderating amid signals of easing global trade tensions, this has placed a subtle ceiling on further gold gains.
US Economic Data: Lower-than-expected CPI readings, accompanied by elevated core inflation figures, have bolstered market confidence in September rate easing.
FOMC Outlook: Fed rate-cut expectations remain elevated, with the CME FedWatch tool pricing in a high probability of easing by the September meeting.
Trade Policy: The extended U.S.–China tariff truce and upcoming U.S.–Russia discussions continue to reduce the urgency for gold as a geopolitical hedge.
Monetary Policy: Global dovish shifts across rate-setting authorities maintain a supportive environment for bullion
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Trend: Positive—but cautious—as gold consolidates above the key $3,350 area.
Resistance: Immediate cap near $3,370–$3,380. A breakout beyond these levels could pave the way toward $3,400.
Support: Found just below at $3,350, with additional floors at $3,330. A drop below these would suggest a pullback to deeper support levels.
Forecast: Continued dovish U.S. sentiment and safe-haven flows could propel gold above $3,380. Conversely, a hawkish Fed tone or strong dollar rally may expose gold to a retracement toward $3,330.
Market Sentiment: Modestly bullish—traders remain optimistic but measured, seeking confirmation from upcoming economic data.
Catalyst: The upcoming PPI and weekly jobless claims will be critical; dovish surprises could fuel further upward momentum, while stronger-than-expected readings may reignite USD strength and cap gold gains.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has tumbled to around $62.15, reflecting mounting oversupply pressures following a surprise stockpile build and a bearish outlook from the IEA. This marks its lowest level in nearly two months.
Geopolitical Risks: Persistent uncertainty over the U.S.–Russia summit adds limited bullish pressure.
Supply Pressure: U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly by 3 million barrels, signaling weaker demand.
Global Supply Sentiment: The International Energy Agency forecasts a record annual oil surplus, further weighing on prices.
Trade Policy: Ongoing tariff tensions mildly pressure demand sentiment.
Monetary Policy: Expectations of Fed rate cuts cap broader risk appetite and crude demand.
Trend: Bearish, with WTI slipping to its lowest in nearly two months.
Forecast: Oil may test the $61 zone if oversupply persists; only significant geopolitical or supply disruptions could trigger a rebound.
Market Sentiment: Pessimistic, dominated by oversupply concerns.
Catalyst: Watch closely for updates from the U.S.–Russia summit and further inventory data; any easing of sanctions or supply disruptions could support prices.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1337, a strengthening move compared to the previous fix of 7.1350, and notably stronger than market estimates around 7.1743. This represents the yuan’s strongest midpoint setting since early November 2024.
Monetary Policy: The stronger-than-expected fix reflects the PBOC’s continued desire to guide the yuan higher, even as it maintains a tightly managed float system.
Capital Management: Such a move can help counter speculative weakness and support import-cost containment amid FX volatility concerns.
External Pressures: With global softness in the dollar and a renewed narrative around Fed rate cuts, China seems keen to signal stability and counteract depreciation pressures.
Trend: Mildly bearish for USD/CNY in the near term, with a potential downward bias as sentiment favors yuan strength.
Resistance: Expected to hover near 7.1400, where selling may emerge.
Support: The 7.1337 level itself now acts as immediate support; downside may extend toward 7.1200–7.1300 if sentiment continues to favor the yuan.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously yuan-positive. The central bank’s firmer fix is aimed at providing psychological support to the currency.
Catalyst: Watch for follow-up signals from the PBOC and offshore CNH activity—continued strength would reinforce the impression of an underlying appreciation bias.
The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen, with USD/JPY trading near 146.50, marking a three-week high for the Yen. This appreciation stems from the widening policy divergence between a dovish Federal Reserve and a cautiously hawkish Bank of Japan, alongside broader USD weakness.
Monetary Policy Divergence: BoJ’s open support for future rate hikes contrasts sharply with growing Fed rate-cut bets, shifting flows in favor of JPY.
US Dollar Weakness: Persistent USD softness, driven by rate cut speculation, reinforces the Yen’s defensive bid.
Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for JPY remains resilient even amid upbeat equity markets, limiting further USD/JPY gains.
Trend: Mild bullish momentum for JPY, with price action nearing key technical levels.
Resistance: Resistance is being tested near 147.00–147.05, a pivotal zone on intraday charts.
Support: Immediate support lies at the 146.00–146.20 range, with deeper support near 145.40–145.50.
Forecast: Should USD weakening continue, USD/JPY may test 146.00 support; a reversal above 147.00 would open a move toward 147.50.
Market Sentiment: JPY remains favored in the current rate-driven environment; bullish positions reflect confidence in its near-term strength.
Catalyst: Watch for upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data and BoJ commentary—either could intensify the yen’s momentum or derail it by shifting global monetary expectations.
AUD/USD trades near 0.6560, buoyed by July’s labor report showing the unemployment rate improving to 4.2% (down from 4.3%), and 24,500 jobs added, with an impressive 60,500 in full-time roles. These figures helped the Australian Dollar gain traction amid a broader USD pullback. The full-time jobs surge, particularly among female workers, points to resilient employment conditions.
Labor Market Strength: The uptick in full-time roles and steady participation rate reinforce the RBA’s view of a “a little tight” labor market.
Monetary Policy Outlook: Strong employment may delay further RBA rate cuts, shifting market focus to November.
US Dollar Weakness: A softer USD—driven by Fed rate cut bets—provides a tailwind for AUD.
Wage Stability: The Wage Price Index rose 3.4% YoY, signaling steadier underlying inflation pressures.
Trend: Mildly bullish, supported by bullish technicals in the 0.6540–0.6560 zone.
Resistance: Target area between 0.6600–0.6625, the next psychological ceiling.
Support: Floor near 0.6540–0.6550, followed by 0.6500.
Forecast: Sustained AUD strength could push toward 0.6600; conversely, weaker global risk appetite or USD rebound could drag it back to 0.6500.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic—AUD is supported by data but remains sensitive to Fed tone.
Catalyst: Key upcoming drivers include RBA commentary and U.S. PPI readings that may shift near-term monetary policy expectations.
Today’s market tone reflected a split between commodities and currencies, with gold benefiting from easing rate expectations while oil faced heavy selling pressure from supply fears. The Yen’s strength and the PBOC’s measured yuan fix signaled a cautious approach from Asian policymakers amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Australia’s labor data provided a steady backdrop for the Aussie Dollar, though broader sentiment remained driven by global commodity and macroeconomic developments. With rate cut speculation still dominating the gold market and oil grappling with supply dynamics, traders remain focused on upcoming US economic releases for fresh direction. Volatility is likely to persist as global central banks and geopolitical events continue to steer market sentiment.
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Global markets traded cautiously on Wednesday as traders assessed fresh US inflation data and shifting central bank expectations. Gold extended its advance toward $3,350 on rising Federal Reserve rate cut bets, while silver tested key trend-line resistance near $38.20. The US Dollar strengthened against the Canadian Dollar after CPI figures, the New Zealand Dollar softened amid persistent Chinese deflation concerns, and the Australian Dollar steadied following recent losses.
Gold is trading around $3,350, supported by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and easing inflation pressures. Softer-than-expected U.S. CPI has driven down the dollar, fueling gold’s advance, even as improving risk sentiment and reduced trade tensions cap its upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Greater openness toward a U.S.–Russia meeting is dampening safe-haven flows, limiting gold’s rise.
US Economic Data: The recent U.S. CPI figures have spurred renewed optimism for a September rate cut, lifting gold.
FOMC Outlook: Elevated market expectations for easing interest rates underpin mining demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Trade Policy: Extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce reduces immediate risk premiums, moderating gold’s upward momentum.
Monetary Policy: A broad-based easing stance across global central banks continues to support gold’s appeal.
Trend: Bullish consolidation as gold clips gains near $3,350.
Resistance: Near $3,380–$3,400 range; key test awaits.
Support: Immediate support at $3,330, with $3,300–$3,315 as secondary floors.
Forecast: A dovish surprise from Fed commentary or continued inflation softness could propel gold toward $3,400; a stronger gold print may expose downside to $3,300.
Market Sentiment: Optimistic but cautious—longs are poised for clarity from upcoming Fed signals.
Catalyst: Gold’s direction will hinge on further clues from Fed officials and upcoming U.S. data—soft indicators could sustain gains, while renewed hawkish signals may cap the rally.
Silver is trading near $38.10, with bulls testing trend-line resistance around $38.20. The commodity has rebounded after reclaiming the descending trend line amid Fed rate-cut optimism and softer USD pressure.
Geopolitical Risks: Reduced safe-haven demand amid eased tensions limits silver’s upside.
US Economic Data: Soft U.S. inflation metrics are reinforcing bullish sentiment for metals.
FOMC Outlook: Prevailing rate-cut expectations continue to support momentum for silver.
Trade Policy: U.S.–China tariff truce easing dampens demand volatility pressure on silver.
Monetary Policy: Global dovish sentiment holds appeal for non-yielding assets like silver.
Trend: Neutral to a mild bullish bias—price action hovering near a pivotal resistance.
Forecast: A clear break above $38.20 could open a run toward $38.50–$39.00. If the resistance holds, a pullback toward the $37.50–$37.80 zone is likely.
Market Sentiment: Cautious bullish—traders are hungry for a confirmed breakout.
Catalyst: Silver’s direction will depend on whether it can breach trend-line resistance; a breakout may spark a fresh rally, while rejection would likely lead to consolidation near $37.50.
USD/CAD has gained traction, climbing above 1.3750 and approaching 1.3780 in early Asian trading. The advance follows softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which spurred expectations of Fed rate cuts and weakened the Canadian dollar. Falling oil prices—one of Canada’s primary export commodities—have added further downward pressure.
Geopolitical Risks: Oil price drops are hurting the commodity-linked CAD.
US Economic Data: Soft CPI data in July (2.7% YoY, below forecasts) reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut, favoring USD.
FOMC Outlook: Market now sees nearly a 94% chance for a September rate cut—boosting Fed dovishness narratives.
Trade Policy: Looming uncertainty around U.S.–Canada trade and preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola add pressure.
Monetary Policy: With markets ramping up expectations of easing from both Fed and BoC, diverging paths are bullish for USD/CAD.
Trend: Bullish near-term with upside momentum building.
Resistance: around 1.3780–1.3800, where sellers may step in.
Support: Immediate floor near 1.3750, followed by deeper support at 1.3700.
Forecast: A sustained move above 1.3780 could open up a path to 1.3800; failure to hold above 1.3750 may see a test of 1.3700.
Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish for USD/CAD as inflation and oil headwinds weigh on CAD.
Catalyst: Focus now shifts to upcoming BoC minutes and further oil price moves—if oil rebounds or BoC delivers hawkish tones, CAD may regain ground.
NZD/USD is currently trading around 0.5950, showing signs of downside pressure as concerns over China’s ongoing deflation weigh on the currency. Despite renewed optimism surrounding a potential U.S.–China tariff Truce extension, the Kiwi remains under threat due to weak Chinese producer prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Persistent deflation in China, evidenced by July’s PPI decline, undermines confidence in the dollar-proxy Kiwi.
US Economic Data: Lingering bets on Fed rate cuts continue to provide support to the U.S. Dollar, limiting NZD gains.
FOMC Outlook: Markets register nearly a 94% probability of a September rate cut, reinforcing bearish tones for NZD.
Trade Policy: Extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce offers some relief but has not fully stabilized NZD.
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains under pressure to ease, given slowing exports and global risks.
Trend: Bearish to neutral—price action is cautious near 0.5950.
Resistance: Expect resistance near 0.5980–0.6000 if the pair attempts a rebound.
Support: Key support sits around 0.5950, with deeper floors near 0.5920 and 0.5900.
Forecast: A break below 0.5950 could open the path to 0.5900; failure to hold may see temporary strength toward 0.5980 if risk tone improves.
Market Sentiment: Cautious bearish—NZD is pressured by weak external demand dynamics.
Catalyst: FX direction likely hinges on updates from China’s pricing data and US CPI readings later today. Should Chinese data show signs of improving inflation, or if US CPI weakens expectations of a Fed pause, NZD might find temporary footing.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6530, stabilizing after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its third rate cut of the year, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%. The Aussie holds ground as the U.S. Dollar steadies following mixed U.S. inflation data, while Australia’s Wage Price Index comes in softer, reinforcing dovish RBA expectations.
Geopolitical Risks: No new shocks—current focus is on monetary policy and economic data.
US Economic Data: Soft U.S. CPI readings have eased pressure on USD, supporting AUD stability.
FOMC Outlook: Elevated odds of Fed easing maintain a subdued USD tone, benefiting AUD.
Trade Policy: Extended tariff truce supports sentiment for commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
Monetary Policy: A dovish tone from the RBA and ongoing rate cuts weigh on AUD, offset by weaker domestic data.
Trend: Neutral to mildly bullish, holding above 0.6500.
Resistance: 0.6545–0.6560 area—key levels to watch for upside break.
Support: Immediate support near 0.6506 (9-day EMA) and 0.6498 (50-day EMA), crucial for short-term stability.
Forecast: A breakout above 0.6545 could expose a move toward 0.6600, while failure to hold support may see a slide toward 0.6450.
Market Sentiment: Balanced tone—AUD is steady, but traders await stronger directional cues.
Catalyst: AUD/USD hinges on RBA’s follow-through signals—dovish tones may weigh on gains, while a pause or hawkish nuance could drive recovery.
The day’s moves reflected a delicate balance between optimism over potential monetary easing and caution surrounding global economic headwinds. Precious metals maintained upward momentum, while the US Dollar found renewed strength in the wake of US CPI data. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for fresh directional cues.
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Global markets traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors awaited the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key indicator that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. The US Dollar held steady, gold edged higher on softer greenback sentiment, and crude oil prices rebounded despite geopolitical tensions. Major currency pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD saw modest moves, with traders balancing optimism over diplomatic developments against looming economic data releases.
Gold is marginally higher, trading around $3,350–$3,355, as U.S. dollar bulls take a back seat ahead of the crucial U.S. CPI report. The metal rebounded from yesterday’s dip near $3,341, attracting bid support from rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold’s upside remains limited as traders await fresh inflation data for directional clarity and weigh risk-based flows amid a potential U.S.–Russia summit.
Geopolitical Risks: Improved prospects for a U.S.–Russia dialogue have softened haven demand, capping gains.
US Economic Data: Markets await today’s U.S. CPI release, which will be crucial for Federal Reserve guidance.
FOMC Outlook: Elevated Fed rate-cut expectations provide underlying support for gold.
Trade Policy: Extension of U.S.–China tariff truce helps maintain sentiment, reducing immediate upside pressure.
Monetary Policy: Global easing narratives back demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Trend: Neutral to slightly bullish as gold consolidates above recent lows.
Resistance: $3,380; a breakout may target $3,400 if momentum persists.
Support: $3,330 area, then stronger support near $3,314–$3,342.
Forecast: A dovish inflation print could fuel a move toward $3,400, while a stronger-than-expected CPI might push price back to support levels.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic—traders await the CPI for directional cues.
Catalysts: Gold’s short-term trajectory hinges on today’s U.S. CPI—easing inflation should buoy prices, while a reprieve in inflation could trigger renewed dollar strength and cap gains.
WTI crude has bounced back above $63.00, currently trading around $63.35, as Russia dismisses a U.S. deadline related to sanctions, lowering immediate geopolitical supply concerns. However, lingering optimism about a U.S.–Russia meeting and the extension of a U.S.–China tariff truce are also helping to buoy prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Russia’s defiance of the U.S. deadline dampens short-term supply fears.
US Economic Data: Weakening U.S. data fuels expectations of Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering oil demand.
FOMC Outlook: A softer Fed may support oil via improved economic growth prospects.
Trade Policy: A 90-day U.S.–China tariff truce alleviates trade-related demand concerns.
Monetary Policy: Lower rates globally are supportive of energy commodities.
Trend: Slight recovery after last week’s slide.
Forecast: A sustained rally depends on geopolitical developments; a failure to hold above $63 could lead to further retracement.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic, buoyed by easing trade tensions and hopes for diplomatic progress.
Catalyst: Oil’s near-term direction hinges on outcomes from the U.S.–Russia summit and the trajectory of U.S. CPI data.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6500, remaining stable amid two major developments: the extension of the U.S.–China tariff deadline by 90 days and market anticipation of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut. The move on trade tensions has bolstered sentiment for risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, while traders await direction from the RBA.
Geopolitical Risks: The U.S. extension of the China tariff truce defuses immediate trade uncertainty and supports the AUD.
US Economic Data: Weaker U.S. data softens the USD, providing some respite for AUD despite domestic headwinds.
FOMC Outlook: Persistent Fed rate-cut expectations dampen the USD further, indirectly aiding the AUD.
Trade Policy: Smoothening trade tensions ease pressure on Australia’s export outlook.
Monetary Policy: Relative certainty of a 25 bps RBA cut next week keeps AUD under moderate downward pressure.
Trend: Sideways consolidation with a cautious tilt.
Resistance: 0.6525–0.6550 — holdout levels to watch.
Support: 0.6485 (9-day EMA) and deeper support near 0.6460.
Forecast: AUD/USD may see a pre-decision range between 0.6485–0.6550 unless trade or policy shifts alter the outlook.
Market Sentiment: Balanced mixed-tone as traders await clearer direction from the RBA and inflation/data cues.
Catalyst: The direction of AUD/USD hinges on the tone of the upcoming RBA announcement — a dovish outlook may pressure AUD, while a neutral or pause could support a rebound.
EUR/USD is holding just above 1.1600, trading in the low 1.1620s as optimism builds ahead of a scheduled US–Russia meeting slated for this Friday in Alaska. The potential diplomatic thaw over the Ukraine conflict has lifted sentiment, aiding the euro’s relative strength. At the same time, anticipation of today’s US CPI release continues to influence price action.
Geopolitical Risks: In anticipation of a possible US–Russia de-escalation, risk appetite has improved, supporting the euro.
US Economic Data: The US Dollar remains subdued ahead of key inflation figures, detracting from its safe-haven status.
FOMC Outlook: Markets increasingly price in additional Fed rate cuts, undermining dollar strength.
Trade Policy: No immediate tariffs or trade incidents impacting the euro in the short term.
Monetary Policy: A pause in ECB rate easing combined with global policy softness helps maintain euro support.
Trend: Slightly bullish, holding near the support of 1.1600.
Resistance: 1.1650–1.1680 zone offers upside hurdles.
Support: Firm support at 1.1600, followed by stronger support near 1.1570.
Forecast: Positive momentum may carry EUR/USD toward 1.1650 if geopolitical optimism persists, while a strong US CPI report could pressure the pair back toward support.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously upbeat—markets are nudged by geopolitical hopes but remain wary ahead of CPI.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously upbeat—markets are nudged by geopolitical hopes but remain wary ahead of CPI.
The US Dollar Index is holding steady around the 98.50 level, with gains offsetting last week’s decline as markets await today’s pivotal US CPI inflation data. Pockets of USD strength, particularly against the yen, reflect cautious positioning amid elevated expectations for September rate cuts.
Geopolitical Risks: No new disruptions; focus is on inflation signals which could alter Fed policy.
US Economic Data: The US inflation report is the primary catalyst for dollar direction today.
FOMC Outlook: Markets are pricing in a high likelihood (89–90%) of a September Fed rate cut, tempering USD strength.
Trade Policy: Extension of the US–China tariff truce has eased external pressure on the dollar.
Monetary Policy: Any dovish shift post-CPI could tilt expectations further toward easing, weighing on USD.
Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, maintaining support above 98.00.
Resistance: 98.75–99.00 remains the upside barrier if inflation surprises to the upside.
Support: Critical support sits at 98.00, followed by 97.80.
Forecast: CPI results will likely influence near-term price movement—strength on hotter-than-expected data, weakness if inflation comes in soft.
Market Sentiment: Neutrally positioned, with slight bullish lean ahead of CPI.
Catalyst: The inflation report will be key—stronger-than-expected inflation could underpin USD, while cooler readings may open the door for further dollar weakness.
As market participants brace for the US CPI report, sentiment remains measured across asset classes. A softer inflation reading could fuel expectations for Fed rate cuts, supporting risk assets, while a hotter print may strengthen the Dollar and pressure commodities. With geopolitical storylines and central bank decisions also in play, volatility could pick up sharply once the data hits the wires.
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Crude oil prices took center stage in today’s market action, with WTI extending losses below $63.50 amid speculation over a potential US-Russia meeting. Risk sentiment remained cautious as traders weighed geopolitical developments and the outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the US Dollar firmed, the Australian Dollar struggled on rising RBA rate cut bets, and the Japanese Yen softened against a rebounding greenback. Precious metals like silver held steady on safe-haven demand, supported by Fed rate cut expectations.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading just above $38.00, extending its rally amid growing speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut and renewed uncertainty over tariffs. The precious metal continues to appeal to safe-haven and industrial demand amid a softening U.S. dollar. Recent technical strength has reinforced bullish sentiment, suggesting further upside potential.
Geopolitical Risks: Heightened tariff concerns around global trade are boosting safe-haven flows into silver.
US Economic Data: Subdued labor and inflation data have increased bets on a September Fed rate cut.
FOMC Outcome: Expectations of policy easing are underpinning silver’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Trade Policy: Ongoing trade tensions continue to support metal demand as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Easing global rate environments strengthen interest in safe-haven and industrial metals.
Trend: Bullish continuation as silver sustains a move above the $38 level.
Resistance: Immediate resistance at $38.30, then $38.74, and further targets around $39.00–$40.00 if momentum holds.
Support: Key support levels are $37.70 and $37.42, with downside risk near the 50-day moving average (~$36.90)
Forecast: If price sustains above $38.30, expect upside toward $38.74. A failure to hold current levels may lead to a re-test of $37.70.
Market Sentiment: Bullish tone as safe-haven demand strengthens amid policy uncertainty.
Catalysts: Silver is likely to remain resilient if Fed rate-cut expectations intensify or if tariff tensions escalate further.
WTI crude oil has fallen below the $63.50 level, driven by renewed hopes for de-escalation amid reports of an upcoming U.S.–Russia meeting. The potential diplomatic breakthrough has weighed on risk premiums, undercutting crude prices.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising anticipation of U.S.–Russia diplomatic engagement is dampening fears over supply disruption.
US Economic Data: An overarching soft tone in economic indicators continues to pressure demand expectations.
FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook reinforces bearish bias for oil as growth concerns weigh.
Trade Policy: Tariff threats and trade tensions add uncertainty to the market outlook.
Monetary Policy: Loose global tone keeps real rates low, providing limited support to oil.
Trend: Bearish continuation reinforced by the break under $64.00.
Forecast: Oil may drift toward $62–$62.50 if diplomatic optimism persists; however, any surprise supply risks could spark a counter move.
Market Sentiment: Tilted bearish amid expectations of reduced geopolitical risk.
Catalysts: Oil is likely to remain under downward pressure unless talks stall or supply concerns resurface, such as delays to OPEC+ production increases or further geopolitical escalation.
AUD/USD is hovering around 0.6500, reversing earlier gains as markets increasingly price in a likely 25 bp RBA rate cut on August 12. Despite strong trade surplus figures, the shift in policy expectations is exerting downward pressure on the currency.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade policy remains benign, offering little support to the AUD.
US Economic Data: Weakness in labor and inflation figures has increased global easing expectations, reducing broader USD strength.
FOMC Outcome: Persistent bets on Fed easing keep risk flows alive despite pressure on AUD.
Trade Policy: A widened Australian trade surplus provides some structural support to the currency.
Monetary Policy: Near-certain RBA easing (with a cash rate likely to drop to 3.60%) is weighing on the Aussie.
Trend: Bearish short-term, erasing recent climb above 0.6550.
Resistance: 0.6525 and 0.6550
Support: 0.6485 and 0.6460
Forecast: AUD/USD may consolidate between 0.6485–0.6525 ahead of RBA’s decision; a cut could further pressure levels toward 0.6460.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish as the likelihood of near-term easing grows.
Catalysts: The Australian Dollar is vulnerable in the short term due to high market confidence in an imminent RBA rate cut.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm above the 98.00 level following reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading contender to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. The prospect of Waller, known for a measured and data-driven approach—including support for rate cuts—has underpinned the Dollar’s strength.
Geopolitical Risks: None immediate; markets are focused squarely on Fed leadership developments.
US Economic Data: Recent weakness in jobless claims bolstered expectations of impending rate cuts.
FOMC Outcome: The potential appointment of a dovish chair like Waller reinforces a near-term easing narrative.
Trade Policy: Tariff uncertainty remains a factor, but has not gained front-stage prominence today.
Monetary Policy: Anticipated shifts in Fed direction shape broader expectations for the Dollar’s trajectory.
Trend: Bullish, with price consolidating above 98.00
Resistance: 98.40 – a key short-term hurdle.
Support: 98.00 followed by 97.50 in case of pullback
Forecast: DXY may continue to edge upward if clarity around Fed leadership emerges, with upside toward 98.40. Otherwise, a loss of the 98.00 base could hint at short-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish amid speculation over Fed leadership and impending rate policy shifts.
Catalysts: The dollar is being buoyed by growing market confidence that Waller, a plausible successor to Powell, may steer the Fed toward easier policy.
USD/JPY trades near 147.35, weakening as traders react to uncertainty around the timing of the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and possible U.S.–Japan trade tensions. Despite this softening, expectations of Fed rate cuts and limited safe-haven demand are buffering the Yen from deeper deterioration.
Geopolitical Risks: Rising U.S. tariff concerns are undermining JPY demand.
US Economic Data: Indicators weaken support for USD, reducing full downside on JPY.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s dovish stance is limiting USD upside, while keeping yields support intact.
Trade Policy: Rising trade policy fears strain JPY but also dampen extreme USD moves.
Monetary Policy: Mixed BoJ signals — possibility of hikes later in the year — cap JPY weakness.
Trend: Neutral-to-mild bearish.
Resistance: 147.70, then near 148.00.
Support: 147.00, followed by 146.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may consolidate between 147.00–147.70 unless further catalyst emerges.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish toward the Yen as risk tone improves.
Catalysts: The pair’s direction will hinge on further clarity from BoJ on policy intentions and developments regarding U.S.–Japan trade relations.
As oil markets continue to react to shifting geopolitical dynamics and global monetary expectations, traders remain on edge for further signals. With central bank cues, diplomatic developments, and inflation data in focus, the near-term trajectory for commodities and major currencies hinges on how these themes unfold.
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Markets are seeing heightened volatility as safe-haven demand surges amid renewed trade tensions. Gold prices rally as global uncertainties mount, while the Japanese Yen faces pressure following reports of additional US tariffs. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar pares early gains after mixed Chinese trade data, and both GBP/USD and EUR/USD remain steady ahead of key central bank and economic releases. With investors eyeing upcoming policy decisions and economic indicators, caution dominates the trading landscape.
Gold is trading near $3,380, buoyed by heightened trade concerns and fresh tariff threats. Safe-haven flows are returning amid renewed geopolitical tensions, while dovish rate-cut expectations for September enhance gold’s appeal. However, a modest rebound in the US Dollar is tempering further upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalated US tariff threats—including levies on Indian and Japanese imports—boost safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak job figures stoke rate-cut speculation, supporting gold fundamentals.
FOMC Outcome: The market increasingly expects a Fed rate cut by September, adding pressure on the Dollar.
Trade Policy: Renewed concern over global trade tension continues to drive inflows into gold.
Monetary Policy: Anticipated global monetary easing further enhances non-yielding asset attractiveness.
Trend: Bullish momentum reinforced after recent pullback.
Resistance: $3,400 psychological barrier, then $3,420–$3,435 supply zone.
Support: Immediate support seen at $3,350; a deeper floor near $3,330.
Forecast: A sustained break past $3,400 could pave the way for further gains, while a pullback remains limited beyond $3,350.
Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism for gold as investors rotate back into safe-haven assets.
Catalysts: Demand could intensify if additional US tariff steps materialize or if the Fed confirms expectations of approaching rate cuts.
The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6500 after trimming earlier gains, as Australia reports a stronger-than-expected trade surplus for June. Exports surged 6.0% MoM and imports dropped 3.1%, widening the surplus to AUD 5.365 billion—above forecasts. Meanwhile, renewed global growth optimism and easing trade tensions continue to offer mild support to the risk-sensitive currency.
Geopolitical Risks: Trade jitters are easing, supporting clean-dominant commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
US Economic Data: A subdued US Dollar amid mixed growth data, including initial jobless claims and Fed-related news, provides breathing room for AUD
FOMC Outcome: Dollar softness is partly driven by continued expectations of a September rate cut.
Trade Policy: A widening Australian trade surplus reflects resilient demand from China—a positive for AUD
Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia faces pressure to consider future easing, cushioning AUD action.
Trend: Bullish recovery stalled, now consolidating near 0.6500.
Forecast: AUD/USD may move sideways between 0.6485–0.6525 unless new trade or monetary policy developments emerge.
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish as Australia’s trade data contrasts with underlying pressure from expectations of RBA rate cuts.
Catalysts: The next directional moves will depend on upcoming RBA policy comments and fresh data out of China or the US.
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3350, showing limited movement as market participants await the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision. The pair had been buoyed by a modest rebound, but recent inflation and labor data have chilled bullish sentiment. Traders now expect a quarter-point rate cut by the BoE, prompting caution across Sterling trades.
Geopolitical Risks: No fresh shocks—markets focused on UK monetary policy next.
US Economic Data: Soft U.S. labor data has weakened the Dollar, offering slight support to GBP.
FOMC Outcome: Expectation of slowed Fed tightening keeps GBP moves restrained.
Trade Policy: Trade sentiments remain stable, offering neither support nor pressure on GBP.
Monetary Policy: Strong odds of a 25 bps cut from the BoE this week weigh on Pound strength.
Trend: Sideways to mildly bearish
Resistance: 1.3380 followed by 1.3420
Support: 1.3300 and a deeper floor at 1.3250
Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to consolidate in the 1.3300–1.3380 range until the BoE statement provides direction.
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral as traders await clarity from monetary policy signals.
Catalysts: The upcoming BoE rate decision and its accompanying statement are expected to steer near-term direction for GBP/USD.
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1665, supported in early Thursday trading by a weaker US Dollar and improving Eurozone retail sales. Yet the pair remains cautious ahead of the release of German industrial production data, which could set the tone for near-term directional moves.
Geopolitical Risks: No significant macro shocks; focus remains on economic indicators
US Economic Data: Softer employment figures have undercut the Dollar, bolstering the Euro.
FOMC Outcome: Markets remain positioned for eventual Fed easing, weakening safe-haven demand for USD.
Trade Policy: Ongoing tariff pressures, especially from the US, underpin cautious Eurozone sentiment.
Monetary Policy: ECB remains on hold but inflation concerns and slowing German production may pressure future rate outlook.
Trend: Mild bullish tone, consolidating above the 1.1650 level.
Resistance: 1.1680 — next hurdle to confirm momentum.
Support: 1.1630 and 1.1600 — critical levels to preserve gains.
Forecast: EUR/USD may maintain gains near 1.1680 if German data disappoints—but a strong print could spark a rebound toward 1.1700.
Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish as traders await clearer direction amid mixed economic data.
Catalysts: German June industrial production—if it falls short of expectations, it may limit EUR/USD upside movement.
USD/JPY is trading near 147.35, edging lower as reports surface of potential additional 15% U.S. tariffs on all Japanese imports, with no exceptions for goods already taxed above 15%. The Japanese Yen is under renewed pressure even as risk sentiment softens and the US Dollar shows cautious strength.
Geopolitical Risks: Escalating U.S. tariff threats are undermining confidence in Japan’s export sector.
US Economic Data: A resilient U.S. economy continues to support the Greenback.
FOMC Outcome: A Federal Reserve perceived as data-dependent keeps USD buoyant.
Trade Policy: Reports of imposition without exemption increase uncertainty around Japan’s trade outlook.
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan remains on hold, reinforcing policy divergence and limiting JPY strength.
Trend: Neutral-to-bearish in the short term
Resistance: 147.75 followed by 148.20
Support: 147.00 and 146.50
Forecast: Weakness may persist if tariff reports gain traction; however, a reversal or clarification could result in a pullback toward support.
Market Sentiment: Cautious; uncertainties around trade policy are favoring USD strength.
Catalysts: The Yen’s direction now hinges on confirmation or retraction of tariff proposals and any follow-up statements from trade officials that may clarify the policy stance.
Today’s session reflects a market bracing for impact—gold gains on risk aversion, while the Yen weakens under tariff pressure. The Australian Dollar showed resilience but lacked follow-through, and major currency pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD hold their ground in anticipation of high-impact releases. As the week unfolds, traders will be closely watching the BoE decision, German industrial data, and ongoing trade developments for further direction.
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