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Global financial markets on May 9, 2025, are shaped by easing trade tensions following the US-UK trade deal and upcoming US-China talks, though persistent geopolitical risks and a hawkish Fed stance support the US Dollar. NZD/USD slips below 0.5900 after weak Chinese trade data, while AUD/USD holds near 0.6400. Gold recovers above $3,300, and WTI crude hovers near $60.00, buoyed by trade optimism but capped by OPEC+ output plans. Fed speakers and ongoing trade developments are key catalysts today.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,310, up from $3,275.
Market Dynamics: Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine ceasefire violations, Middle East tensions, India-Pakistan clashes) bolster safe-haven demand. US-UK trade deal and US-China talks (May 10, Switzerland) fuel optimism, capping gains. A stronger USD (DXY at 100.60) post-Fed’s hawkish pause (rates at 4.25%-4.50%) pressures gold. Fed speakers today will influence rate-cut expectations (July favored).
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,265; resistance at $3,360. Oscillators neutral, with a break below $3,265 targeting $3,200.
Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.5890, down for the third day.
Key Drivers: China’s trade surplus shrank to CNY 689.99 billion (USD 96.18 billion) in April, with exports slowing to 8.1% YoY, pressuring NZD due to New Zealand’s trade ties with China. USD strength from lower US Jobless Claims (228K vs. 241K prior) and Fed’s hawkish stance adds headwinds. RBNZ’s expected 25 bps rate cut in May weighs on NZD.
Technical Outlook: Support at 0.5850; resistance at 0.5950. RSI below 50 signals bearish momentum, with Fed speeches as catalysts.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6400, recovering daily losses.
Market Dynamics: Weak Chinese trade data (imports down 0.2% YoY) pressures AUD, but US-UK deal and US-China talk hopes lift risk sentiment. USD strength (DXY at 100.60) and RBA rate-cut expectations for May cap gains. Australia’s trade surplus (AUD 6.9 billion) provides support. Beijing’s reluctance to ease tariffs adds uncertainty.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6515; support at 0.6408. RSI above 50 maintains bullish bias, with trade news key.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.50, supported by USD strength.
Influencing Factors: JPY rebounds from a four-week low, backed by strong Japanese household spending (+2.1% YoY) and BoJ rate-hike bets for 2025. However, US-UK deal optimism and USD strength (Fed’s hawkish pause) limit JPY gains. Geopolitical risks (Middle East, India-Pakistan) support safe-haven JPY but are overshadowed by trade hopes.
Technical View: Resistance at 146.15; support at 145.00. Bullish breakout above 200-period SMA favors upside, with 147.00 in sight.
Current Level: USD/CAD trades near 1.3810, slightly lower.
Key Drivers: WTI oil at $59.80 and US-Canada trade deal hopes bolster CAD. USD strength from Jobless Claims (228K) and Fed’s stance limit CAD gains. Canadian jobs report today is critical, with Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada looming.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.3800; resistance at 1.3850. Bearish bias persists, with jobs data as a key driver.
Current Level: WTI crude trades at $59.80, steady after a 4% rally.
Key Drivers: US-UK trade deal and US-China talk optimism boost demand expectations, supported by a 2.032 million barrel US inventory drawdown. OPEC+ output hike plans and US sanctions on Chinese refiners cap gains. Brent crude rises on trade hopes.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $60.20; support at $58.80. RSI neutral, with trade talks and sanctions as catalysts.
Today’s Data: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 228K (week ending May 3), signaling labor market resilience. Canadian jobs report and US trade balance data are due, with Canada’s employment growth key amid tariff concerns.
Fed Speakers: Speeches from FOMC members (e.g., Powell, Waller) will clarify rate-cut timing, with markets pricing a 25 bps cut in July. Powell’s tariff uncertainty comments reinforce caution.
China Trade Data: Narrower trade surplus (CNY 689.99 billion) and slower export growth (8.1% YoY) pressure NZD and AUD, reflecting weaker global demand.
US-UK Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-UK deal maintains 10% tariffs but cuts UK tariffs on US goods to 1.8%. US-China talks (May 10) face hurdles as Trump keeps 145% tariffs, though potential 50% cuts are rumored. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick signals more deals soon.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire breaches, Israel-Houthi escalations, and India-Pakistan tensions support safe-haven assets like gold and JPY, despite trade optimism.
Outlook
On May 9, 2025, markets reflect trade deal optimism from the US-UK agreement and US-China talks, lifting WTI and GBP/USD (1.3340), while NZD/USD (0.5890) and AUD/USD (0.6400) face pressure from weak Chinese trade data. Gold holds above $3,300, and USD/JPY rises with USD strength (DXY at 100.60). Canadian jobs data, Fed speeches, and ongoing trade/geopolitical developments will drive volatility, with investors eyeing tariff outcomes and economic indicators.
Stay tuned for further updates.
