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On June 2, 2025, global markets are grappling with escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, boosting safe-haven assets. The Japanese Yen strengthens for the third consecutive day, pushing USD/JPY to 143.46, driven by BoJ rate-hike expectations and US fiscal concerns. EUR/USD rises to 1.1370, AUD/USD climbs to 0.6460, and NZD/USD nears 0.6000 as USD weakens (DXY at 99.50) post a softer US PCE (2.1% YoY). Gold holds above $3,310, supported by uncertainty, while WTI crude jumps to $61.45 after OPEC+’s third output hike. Key focus is on US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, with trade talks and Middle East tensions in the spotlight.
Current Level: DXY trades near 99.50, flat.
Market Dynamics: US PCE inflation eased to 2.1% YoY in April (vs. 2.2% expected), with core PCE at 2.5%, reinforcing Fed rate-cut bets (September and December, per CME FedWatch). Trump’s tariff hike to 50% on steel/aluminum and US-China trade violations (per Reuters) fuel uncertainty, capping USD gains. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and hopes for US-China talks (Bessent’s comments) limit upside. US ISM Manufacturing PMI (today) and Powell’s speech are critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 99.80; support at 99.00. RSI near 50 signals neutral bias, awaiting PMI data.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 143.46, down 0.4%.
Market Dynamics: Tokyo CPI (3.6% YoY) and core-core CPI (3.3%) exceed BoJ’s 2% target, fueling rate-hike bets (0.5% to 1% by 2026, per Reuters). Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal (Akazawa’s talks) and safe-haven demand (Ukraine-Russia, Gaza conflicts) bolster JPY. USD weakness post-PCE data adds pressure. BoJ’s June 17 meeting and US PMI are key.
Technical Outlook: Support at 143.00; resistance at 144.00 (200-period SMA). Bearish RSI below 50 eyes 142.10.
USD/JPY Forecast: Analysts on X see USD/JPY testing 142.00 if JPY strength persists, with trade deal progress critical. BoJ tightening could drive further JPY gains, per Long Forecast.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1370, up 0.2%.
Market Dynamics: USD weakness and Trump’s 50% steel/aluminum tariffs lift EUR/USD, despite ECB’s dovish stance (Knot’s murky outlook). EU’s retaliation threat (per EC) and US-EU tariff delay (July 9) support EUR. Softer PCE (2.1%) and US fiscal concerns aid gains. US PMI and ECB’s Thursday meeting are focal points.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.1400; support at 1.1300. RSI above 58 favors bulls, targeting 1.1450.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6460, up 0.5%.
Market Dynamics: USD weakness and tariff concerns (50% on steel) boost AUD, despite weak ANZ Job Ads (-1.2%) and S&P Global PMI (51.0). China’s mixed PMI (Manufacturing 49.5, Non-Manufacturing 50.3) limits gains, but PBoC’s potential PSL boost supports sentiment. RBA’s dovish outlook (rate cuts likely) caps upside. US PMI and trade talks are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6445 (9-day EMA). RSI above 50 reinforces bullish bias, eyeing 0.6650.
Current Level: NZD/USD trades near 0.6000, up 0.5%.
Market Dynamics: USD softness and tariff tensions lift NZD, a China-proxy currency. RBNZ’s neutral OCR (2.5%-3.5%, per Silk) and data-dependent stance limit losses. US-China trade disputes and US fiscal concerns support NZD. US PMI and ISM data are critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6050; support at 0.5900. RSI near 50 suggests neutral-to-bullish bias.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,310, up 0.3%.
Market Dynamics: Safe-haven demand from geopolitical risks (Ukraine’s drone attacks, Gaza bombardment, Yemen missile) and trade uncertainty (US-China, 50% tariffs) support gold. Softer PCE (2.1%) and Fed rate-cut bets limit USD-driven losses. US PMI and Powell’s remarks are key, with Chinese demand as a tailwind.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,325; support at $3,280. RSI above 50 favors bulls, targeting $3,350.
Today’s Data: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 48.5, per X posts) and Powell’s speech are critical for Fed rate-cut clarity (49 bps by year-end). Japan’s Retail Sales (3.3% YoY) and BoJ’s June 17 meeting shape JPY expectations. ECB’s Thursday meeting looms.
Geopolitical Developments: Ukraine’s drone attacks, Russia’s missile strikes, Gaza bombardment, and Yemen’s missile attack boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks impact WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill and 50% steel tariffs raise deficit fears (9% GDP by 2035, per Moody’s). Fed’s cautious stance (FOMC minutes) highlights stagflation risks.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: Trump’s 50% steel/aluminum tariffs and US-China trade violations escalate tensions, though Bessent-Xi talks may ease disputes. US-Japan trade deal hopes (Akazawa’s talks) support JPY. EU’s retaliation threat adds volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ukraine-Russia, Gaza, and Yemen conflicts drive safe-haven flows, while US-China trade disputes pressure AUD and NZD.
Outlook
On June 2, 2025, JPY strength pushes USD/JPY to 143.46, while USD weakness lifts EUR/USD (1.1370), AUD/USD (0.6460), and NZD/USD (0.6000). Gold ($3,310) and silver ($33.10) gain, with WTI ($61.45) up on OPEC+ hikes. US PMI, Powell’s remarks, and trade developments will drive volatility, with geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
