This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
This site uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience. By visiting monetamarkets.com, you accept our cookie policy.
Allow all
On June 16, 2025, global markets are dominated by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran launching missile barrages on Israel, boosting safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates at $3,425 after hitting a two-month high, supported by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) dips to $36.20, pressured by USD recovery (DXY at 98.25) but supported by geopolitical tensions. EUR/USD softens to 1.1530, despite ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stating that EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no obstacle to the ECB’s 2% inflation target. USD/JPY rises to 144.75, limited by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ tightening expectations. AUD/USD holds at 0.6460, while USD/CAD rebounds to 1.3600 as WTI crude corrects to $71.90. Key catalysts include the FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats adding uncertainty.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,425, consolidating near a two-month high of $3,452-$3,453, driven by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile barrages on Israel and Israel’s intensified strikes on Iran fuel safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds bolster gold. FOMC decision is key.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on appliances) add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s tariff policy and $4T bill fuel volatility, aiding gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook supports non-yielding gold, while ECB’s hawkish stance limits USD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $3,400 with an ascending trend channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,452-$3,453, then $3,500 (April peak).
Support: $3,400, then $3,360 (trend-channel lower boundary).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,452 if tensions escalate. Hawkish FOMC could push to $3,400; further strikes may drive $3,500.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold at $3,425, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, down slightly, pressured by USD recovery but supported by geopolitical risks.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalation boosts safe-haven demand, limiting silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, pressuring silver. Softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Trade surplus (CNY743.56B) supports industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.
Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).
Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, down slightly below mid-1.1500s, amid a modest USD uptick and anticipation for the FOMC decision.
Key Drivers
ECB Policy: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that EUR/USD at 1.15 is “no big obstacle” to the 2% inflation target, with balanced risks and limited undershooting concerns. Hawkish ECB signals (nearing end of rate cuts) support EUR.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Consumer Sentiment (60.5 vs. 53.5 expected) supports USD, but 68% Fed rate-cut odds for September limit gains. FOMC’s Wednesday decision is critical.
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks on Israel and ongoing strikes boost safe-haven USD flows, pressuring EUR/USD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats (50% on steel derivatives) and G7 Summit talks with Canada add USD uncertainty, supporting EUR/USD.
Eurozone Economy: ECB projects 2% inflation in 2025, falling to 1.6% in 2026, with 0.9% GDP growth, reinforcing hawkish stance.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. Positive daily oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430 (trend-channel support).
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if FOMC signals no rate cuts. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation in Middle East may push to 1.1450.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
USD/JPY trades at 144.75, up slightly, but capped by JPY safe-haven demand and BoJ expectations.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes bolster JPY safe-haven status, limiting USD/JPY upside.
Monetary Policy: BoJ’s expected steady rate (0.5%) and potential JGB purchase reduction signal tightening, supporting JPY. Fed’s 68% rate-cut odds weaken USD.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) caps gains. FOMC decision is critical.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats add USD uncertainty, aiding JPY.
Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, within a multi-week range. Oscillators suggest limited upside.
Resistance: 144.75, then 145.00 and 145.45 (monthly high).
Support: 144.00, then 143.55-143.50 and 142.80-142.75.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.00 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoJ decision, FOMC decision, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
AUD/USD trades at 0.6460, steady despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran-Israel conflict dampens risk appetite, pressuring AUD.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s trade deal awaits Xi’s approval, but 50% tariffs and G7 Summit talks with Canada impact AUD.
Australian Data: Consumer Inflation Expectations at 5% signal RBA caution, but weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits AUD gains.
US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap AUD downside. FOMC decision is key.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish, below ascending channel. RSI near 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6538 and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6423 (50-day EMA), then 0.5914 (March 2020 low).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6423 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6495; trade deal progress may drive 0.6538.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6452, with downside risks. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
WTI crude trades at $71.90, down from $74.74, but supported by Middle East supply disruption fears.
Key Drivers
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s missile attacks and Israel’s strikes raise supply concerns, supporting WTI.
US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop (vs. +100K expected) bolsters WTI.
US-China Trade Talks: Trump’s tariff threats and trade deal uncertainty could drag WTI if demand weakens.
OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.
US Economic Data: FOMC decision could signal demand trends, impacting WTI.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.
Resistance: $72.50, then $74.00 (five-month high) and $76.00.
Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $63.20-$63.30.
Forecast: WTI may test $72.50 if tensions persist. Hawkish FOMC could push to $66.00; further escalation may drive $74.00.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $71.90, with $80 possible if tensions escalate per Long Forecast.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, BoJ policy, G7 Summit, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.
On June 16, 2025, Iran-Israel tensions drive gold ($3,425) and silver ($36.20), while WTI crude ($71.90) corrects but holds firm. EUR/USD (1.1530) softens, USD/JPY (144.75) rises, AUD/USD (0.6460) steadies, and USD/CAD (1.3600) rebounds. ECB’s de Guindos sees EUR/USD at 1.15 as no inflation hurdle, while FOMC and BoJ decisions, G7 Summit trade talks, and Middle East developments are key. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility.
Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!
